Is Crime Down? 


Attempting to fend off the perception of rising crime and diminishing quality of life across America, the Dems are pushing the recent FBI report that reportedly shows crime dropping across America.  


Let’s take some of the salient Dem talking points in turn: 

“Last year the United States had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime in 50 years.”  


Verifying this claim is impossible for those who prefer to use the standard metric – that is, the published FBI data – as the official FBI numbers only go back to 1985 — 39 years. 

So we are left to extrapolate ourselves.  As most crime analysts like to use murders as the bellwether, let’s go with that.  

A reliable source posits roughly 18,800 murders as likely for 2023.  

The FBI preliminary data for 2023 claims a murder drop of 13.3% for 2023 over 2022 — which would bring that number instead to 18,363.  

Either way: While that is a drop from last year, it is still the highest aggregate murder number since 1996 (which, not coincidentally, is the year “broken windows” policing really began to take hold).  

Here’s what the chart looks like, direct from the FBI website: 

Further: Even taking the lower FBI number, the extrapolated figure of 18,363 murders represents an increase of roughly 12% since the start of 2020 – the year President Biden took office.  

If overall violent crime numbers track these murder numbers… this is nothing to boast about.

Now, COVID did indeed skew crime statistics, as we all acknowledge – so wholly blaming Joe Biden for this increase is unfair.  

But numbers are numbers, and unequivocal claims based on them must still pass mathematical muster. 

“Murder, rape, Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Property Crime, and Theft all dropped sharply.”

Likely true, but also unverifiable at this time, for the same reasons.  And also: So what?

As mentioned above, COVID skewed the numbers, and we are still emerging from its shadow.  But as the above analysis shows, the welcome news that 2023 will be an improvement over 2022 is hardly an historic achievement.  Not when violent crime numbers are simply leveling off to pre-COVID levels.

Take NYC as an example.  Here’s what we look like for the seven major felonies, 2019 -2023: 

(source: NY Post)

That’s right – we’re up a full third since “criminal justice reform.”  

This also ignores the quality-of-life crimes that the Soros prosecutors are so committed to ignoring, and which are driving down living standards in so many areas.  Reportedly, as much as 50% of quality-of-life crimes go unreported.   Whether or not it is that high, what is undeniable is that the current system has been skewed to incentivize ignoring many quality-of-life infractions. 

“Biden Did That”

Joe Biden has made a number of specious claims regarding combating crime – especially in the area of funding.  

Here’s his statement from a recent appearance: 

Under my “American Rescue Plan,” we provided 350 billion dollars that was available to deal with these issues.”  Fact is that we, uh, we find ourselves, they could use it, uh, this money to keep law enforcement on the beat, communities safe from violence.  We invested 15 billion dollars to make their communities safer.


The $350 billion Biden refers to here is the amount of “flexible” stimulus aid the feds provided to states, counties, and local jurisdictions to use as they chose to – it was not earmarked for law enforcement purposes, to “deal with these issues.” 

The $15 billion number appears to refer to some subset of this amount.  A direct source for this figure does not appear to exist.  The White House briefing sheet itself uses $10 billion for this amount. 

Biden Has Been Working With Local Law Enforcement

“You know, since day one, my administration has been working with law enforcement, mayors, and community leaders to do what we know works… and deal with apprehending violent fugitives.” 

Unless those “violent fugitives” are illegal migrants, apparently. 

 “I signed an executive order to advance executive and accountable community policing.” 

Whatever he’s signed, it’s had no effect on the ground.  And his main executive order is this area has been the National Law Enforcement Accountability Database, a repository designed to track police misconduct.  Which he put under the auspices of Kamala Harris.  You know, the VP who went on Twitter to raise bail funds for those burning our cities in Summer 2020.  

His other main initiative is the passing of the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act – a series of “reforms” that would turn all of America into downtown Portland. 

Funny – no mention of the Protect and Serve Act – a proposal to federalize the murder of police officers, which is currently stalled in Congress. 


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