For obvious reasons in an election year, the national media has latched onto the Biden administration’s declarations of the nation’s crime numbers “going in the right direction” (click here to see the somnolent Merrick Garland delivering a “forceful” statement on it) (wake us when it’s over).
So why is it b.s?
First, comparing 2023 to 2022 is like comparing the Lusitania to the Titanic. For a better metric, compare 2023 to 2019 — the last year before COVID, but also the last year before the vaunted “criminal justice reforms” swept the nation.
Let’s use NYC. By the 2019 metric, we are up over 33% in the seven majors.
Second, many crimes are not even being reported. As an old colleague reports here, in many instances prosecutors are not only downgrading crimes heavily, but simply dropping charges. The actions of police simply don’t signify.
And as I showed here, in the larceny category alone, tens of thousands of incidents go unreported — because the public has despaired of any satisfaction from doing so.
Lastly: While Garland — and others — concentrate on miniscule drops in certain violent crime categories, none are speaking to the quality-of-life crimes that are so denigrating our cities. Many police departments don’t even track these.
But people feel QOL crimes far more than they feel violent crimes — because they’re far more common. Most of us (hopefully) will never be stabbed. But all of us in a blue city have been menaced by vagrants, witnessed brazen shoplifting, watched drug deals being cut on the streets, and so on.
In most cities — especially here in NYC — a combination of legislative animus, prosecutor inaction, and abysmal executive leadership is combining to ensure this last trend continues.
But keep selling the narrative, fellas. The Biden/Garland duo inspires such confidence.
Thanks for reading The Ops Desk. Stay Safe!